03:14 UTC MAY 19 2026

DISCUSSION:   A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY. BUT DESPITE ITS PRESENCE, IT HAD LITTLE EFFECT, APART FROM THE GENERATION OF UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS WAS SO BECAUSE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS SHALLOW AND THERE WAS LITTLE LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, AN ATMOSPHERE LOW IN MOISTURE SURROUNDED IT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WAS MORE-SO DEPENDENT ON THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS: THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARDS AND LOOSE ITS EFFECT; HOWEVER, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AT THE 500MB LEVEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD TONIGHT. UNDERNEATH, IS A WEAK REFLECTION AT 700MB. WHILE LITTLE REFECTION WAS NOTED AT 850, A MOISTURE BULGE IN THE LOWER LEVELS COULD BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE THE TROUGH. THEREFORE OVERNIGHT, A HIGHER CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WHICH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST SUPPORTS WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. MEANWHILE, THE BVI WILL STILL SEE A MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT MAINLY FROM THE SHALLOW CLOUDS IN THE WIND FLOW

FORECASTER

LENARD JOSIAH