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>TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH STATEMENT

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WATCH STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
11:30 PM ECT THU, OCT 19, 2023


THIS IS FOR MONTSERRAT

...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT...

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS SHOULD BE READY, AWAITING ACTIVATION.

AT 1100 PM AST OR 0300 UTC, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 57.1 WEST OR 395 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTSERRAT.

TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SLOWDOWN IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY, AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TAMMY WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND THEN MOVE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

DATA FROM THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. TAMMY IS FORECAST TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY WHEN IT MOVES NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM) FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB OR 29.56 INCHES.

BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, TROPICAL STORM TAMMY IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AND BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT WE ARE EFFECTIVELY PREPARING FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO BE ACROSS ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA LATE FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY. THIS WATCH COULD BE FURTHER UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

MORE SPECIFIC IMPACTS INCLUDE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 70 MILES PER HOUR GUSTING TO 85 MILES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF TAMMY.

RAINFALL TOTAL IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY. SUCH RAINS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUNDS.

MARINERS SHOULD STAY IN PORT AND SEEK SAFE ANCHORAGE. SEAS BATHERS SHOULD AVOID THE BEACHES AS DANGEROUS SURFS AND RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF TAMMY.

ALL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF TAMMY CLOSELY AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM POSITION 13.8 N, 57.1W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 6AM.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION

FORECASTER
LENARD JOSIAH/TRECY SPENCER-LAKE