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>TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH STATEMENT

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM JERRY (POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE )WATCH STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
11:45 PM ECT THU, OCT 9, 2025

THIS IS FOR MONTSERRAT

...TROPICAL STORM JERRY (POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE )MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM OR DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSE A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. RESIDENTS SHOULD START TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE DISASTER PLANS.

AT 5 PM ECT OR 2100Z THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY (POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE )WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST OR ABOUT ... MILES EAST OF .............

JERRY (POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE )IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MILES PER HOUR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST TONIGHT BUT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OF TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTRE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB OR 29.53 INCHES.

BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF JERRY. THE SYSTEM IS NOW PROJECTED TO PASS OVER OR VERY NEAR TO ..............

THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS WITHIN 48 HOURS WITH PEAK WINDS OF 50 MPH ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALSO, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER A PERIOD OF LESS THAN 24 HRS. WITH THIS TYPE OF RAINFALL, RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONED AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUNDS AS MODERATE FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. RESIDENTS NEAR SLOPES SHOULD PREPARE TO GUARD AGAINST MUDSLIDES.

MARINERS SHOULD STAY IN PORT AND SEEK SAFE ANCHORAGE. SEAS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE (OR DETERIORATE) AND WILL PEAK NEAR 10 FEET IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE STORM DRAWS NEAR.

ALL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF JERRY (POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ) CLOSELY AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 11:45 PM ECT POSITION, 15.0 N, 41.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THEWEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT .... ECT E.T.C

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FORECASTER
ORVIN PAIGE