TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH STATEMENT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM POSE A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 59.1 WEST OR ABOUT 308 MILES (496 KM) EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANGUILLA.
.
JERRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY SLOWER NORTHWARD MOTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF JERRY IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND JERRY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM) MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).

BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, THE CORE OF JERRY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW FRIDAY CAUSING GUSTY CONDITIONS MAINLY IN SHOWERS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 2 - 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF JERRY WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING MAINLY IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS

SWELLS GENERATED BY JERRY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS; HENCE, MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO STAY IN PORT

RESIDENTS SHOULD BE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF JERRY AND BE PREPARING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM CONDITIONS

REPEATING THE 11:00 AM ECT POSITION, 15.9 N, 59.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 5 PM