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>TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH STATEMENT
>WHCA31 TAPAANGUILLA
...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM OR DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSE A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. RESIDENTS SHOULD START TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE DISASTER PLANS.
AT 5 AM ECT OR 0900Z THE CENTRE OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 52.5 WEST OR ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANGUILLA.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 25 MILES PER HOUR AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, POTENTIAL CYCLONE 5 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND APPROACH THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TUESDAY EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND AN UPGRADE TO TROPICAL DEPRESSSION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AND FURTHER A TROPICAL STORM AS IT NEARS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB OR 29.80 INCHES.
BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AND RESIDENTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL STORM ACROSS OUR AREA BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
POSSIBLE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM INCLUDE:
WINDS REACHING TROPICAL STORMS STRENGTH, THAT IS, WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 - 5INCHES HENCE FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONED AREAS SHOULD PLAN TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND ONCE A FLOOD WATCH OR WARNING IS ISSUED.
SURFS, CAUSING DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA FROM LATE MONDAY. AS A RESULT SEA BATHERS SHOULD AVOID THE BEACHES AND MARINERS SHOULD STAY IN PORT AND SEEK SAFE ANCHORAGE FOR SMALL CRAFTS.
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION WHERE NECESSARY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 11 AM ECT OR SOONER IF THERE ARE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
FORECASTER
PATRICE EDWARDS