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>TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING STATEMENT

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WARNING STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
11:26 PM ECT THU, OCT 9, 2025

THIS IS FOR ANGUILLA

...JERRY NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AS IT PASSES BY JUST EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
 
AT 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED BY AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST OR ABOUT 98 MILES EAST OF ANGUILLA. . JERRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A  GRADUAL SLOWDOWN ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF JERRY WILL PASS JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM) FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE DATA IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).

BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, TROPICAL STORM JERRY CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTAL OF UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF JERRY.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 11:00 PM ECT POSITION, 18.2 N, 61.6W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB.


THE NEXT UPDATE ON JERRY WILL BE AT 5 AM FRIDAY

FORECASTER
ORVIN PAIGE