03:24 UTC APRIL 24 2024

DISCUSSION:   THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA REMAINED RELATIVELY STABLE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER A LINE OF MOISTURE WAS NOTED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARDS INCHING TOWARD THE AREA.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS: THE LATEST MODELS SHOW THAT THE LINE OF MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE LEEWARDS EARLY TOMORROW. WHILE THERE ISN'T MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEEP LAYERED SUPPORT, MODELS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO TRIGGER CLOUD FORMATION. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. BASED ON AVAILABLE MODEL SOUNDING, NEUTRAL STABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THIS, ALONG WITH NORMAL DAYTIME WARMTH AND THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE COULD RESULT IN A MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO. GENERALLY, THIS OUTLOOK FAVORS RAISING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS HIGHER THAN WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SUGGESTS.

FORECASTER

LENARD JOSIAH