00:48 UTC JULY 16 2024

DISCUSSION:   A WEAK TROUGH MOVED OVER THE AREA TODAY; HOWEVER, NOT MUCH MATERIALIZED FROM THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE OF MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS. BY THIS EVENING, MOISTURE LEVELS BEGAN TO RISE AND IN RESPONSE, RAIN SHOWERS BECAME MORE PREVALENT ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY.

FOR THE NEST 24 HOURS: MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED. INTERESTINGLY, A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS ANALYZED ALONG 58W IS NOT CLEARLY OBSERVED ON THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE LARGELY PREVAILING EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDLFOW ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE; NOTWITHSTANDING, THE GFS RELATED GDI INDEX REVEALS AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE LEEWARDS TOMORROW. THE ECMWF REVEALS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE BUT ALSO REVEALS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MASKED BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW. A BLEND BETWEEN THESE MODELS SUGGEST CLOUDY SPELLS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WHICH THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT EXPLICITLY SHOW CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL MOTION TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS; THE INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW COULD STILL PROVIDE SMALLER SCALE TRIGGER ON WHICH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL MATERIALIZE. MEANWHILE, THE BVI WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY LATE TOMORROW BUT UNTIL THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.

FORECASTER

LENARD JOSIAH