AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

14:00 UTC MAY 26 2024

 

DISCUSSION:   MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED OVER THE LEEWARDS THIS MORNING. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTED IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN SOME INSTANCE IN ANTIGUA ACCOMPANIED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. A FLASH FLOOD ADVISORY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WERE ISSUED AND REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11AM AND 2 PM RESPECTIVELY. MORNING REPORTS FROM THE OTHER ISLANDS ALSO SHOW SHOWERS IN THEIR VICINITY BUT NOT AS INTENSE.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS: THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST. HOWEVER, LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF BEST DYNAMICS WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF ANGUILLA. THIS MEANS THAT ST. KITTS, NEVIS, ANTIGUA BARBUDA AND MONTSERRAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON-ALBEIT THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN INTO THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE BVI WILL SEE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH A MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS MOST OF THE ENERGY OF THE WAVE STAYS SOUTH OF THOSE ISLANDS. THIS OUTLOOK FOR THE BVI IS A LITTLE LESS THAN WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SUGGESTS

 

FORECASTER

LENARD JOSIAH