14:57 UTC SEPTEMBER 29 2023

DISCUSSION:  PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE. THIS WAS EVIDENT BY THE SPOTTY ECHOES AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OBSERVED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED LIGHTER NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW MORNING.

MEANWHILE, SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AS SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE.

THIS IS IN AGRREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST AND NO AMENDMENTS ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. 

FORECASTER

LORNE SALMON/CHARISSA HUMPHREYS