SIX-MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR ANTIGUA – JUL TO DEC 2016
Dale C. S. Destin (follow @anumetservice)
Antigua and Barbuda
Meteorological Service
Climate Section
Issued July 3, 2016
Based upon model data, observations and subjective input, the following is the rainfall and temperature outlook for Antigua for the period July to December 2016:
Rainfall
Below to near normal rainfall is likely, with a confidence of 75%. The chance of wetter than usual weather is slight - 25%. The island-average rainfall is expected to be less than 871.2 mm (34.3 in). Probabilistically, there is a
• 25% chance of above normal rainfall;
• 35% chance of near normal rainfall (662.9 to 871.2 mm or 26.1 to 34.3 in) and
• 40% chance of below normal rainfall.Temperature
Warmer than normal to normal mean temperature is likely, with a confidence of 75%. The chance of cooler than normal weather is slight - 25%. The mean temperature is likely to exceed 27.3 °C (81.1 °F). Probabilistically, there is a
• 40% chance of above normal temperature;
• 35% chance of near normal temperature (27.3 to 27.6 °C or 81.1 to 81.7 °F) and
• 25% chance of below normal temperature.
This outlook is largely predicated on sea surface temperature (SST) patterns across the tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
More outlooks: July, July to September, October to December, Drought
The next will be issued by August 3.
Definition
The following definitions are being observed based on the 1981 to 2010 dataset:
• Well below normal: Values in the lowest 10% of the dataset
• Below normal (lower or less than normal): Values in the lowest 33.3% of the dataset
• Near normal (normal or usual): Values in the middle 33.3% of the dataset
• Above normal (more or higher than normal): Values in the highest 33.3% of the dataset
• Well above normal: Values in the highest 10% of the dataset
BackgroundCliSec's six month outlooks are general statements about the probability or risk of above, near or below normal (rainfall) over a six-month period. The outlooks are based on the statistics of chance (the odds) taken from Antigua's rainfall and mainly sea surface temperature records for the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. They are not, however, categorical predictions about future rainfall, and they are not about rainfall within individual months of the six-month outlook period.
Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. These outlooks
should be used as a tool in risk management and decision making. The benefits accrue from
long-term use, say over 10 years. At any given time, the probabilities may seem inaccurate,
but taken over several years, the advantages of taking account of the risks should outweigh
the disadvantages. For more information on the use of probabilities, farmers could contact
their local departments of agriculture.
Disclaimer
The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of this outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.