TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH STATEMENT

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WATCH STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
4:48 PM ECT FRI, AUG 13, 2021

THIS IS FOR ANGUILLA

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 48 HOURS. A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 51.8 WEST OR ABOUT 768 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ANGUILLA. KITTS AND NEVIS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH (35 KM/H). A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT, OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY, AND THEN OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB (29.83 INCHES).

BASED UPON THE LATEST POSITION AND ANALYSES, TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER ANGUILLA ON SUNDAY AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. SKIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AND INTO MOST OF SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTAL IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES ARE ALSO LIKELY AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, THAT IS WINDS OF UP TO 40 MILES PER HOUR WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DEPRESSION.

SEAS WILL DETERIORATE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DEPRESSION AND COULD PEAK NEAR 2.8 METRES OR 9 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD STAY IN PORT BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AND ON SUNDAY.

AT THIS TIME, NO PARTICULAR ACTION IS REQUIRED OF RESIDENTS OF ANGUILLA OTHER THAN TO KEEP MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.

THE NEXT UPDATE ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AROUND 8 PM THIS EVENING.

FORECASTER
ORVIN PAIGE

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