TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
11:50 AM LST SUN SEP 20 2020

...WILFRED WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WELL EAST OF THE ISLANDS...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILFRED, WHICH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS.

ALL THE MODELS SURVEYED, EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE, HAVE WILFRED DISSIPATING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE ISLANDS. IF IS SURVIVES BEYOND TUESDAY, ALL MODELS HAVE IT STEERING CLEAR OF THE AREA. HENCE, BASED ON THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO, THE CYCLONE POSES NO THREAT TO ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, THE REST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM LST OR 1500 UTC, WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 44.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1160 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 20 MPH. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILFRED IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY.

GIVEN THE STRONG AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY AT THE MIDDLE TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE THE CYCLONE IS HEADING INTO, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL DISSIPATE IN A FEW DAYS. DISSIPATION COULD COME AS EARLY AS LATER TODAY.

THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERTS IN EFFECT AND NONE WILL BE REQUIRED FOR WILFRED.

RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ATLANTIC AND STAY PREPARED.

AN UPDATE WILL BE GIVEN BY AROUND 11 AM TOMORROW, IF NEEDED.

FORECASTER
DALE DESTIN