AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

01:36 UTC SEPTEMBER 20 2020

 

DISCUSSION:   A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW ALSO KEPT THE ENVIRONMENT OPPRESSIVELY WARM WITH A MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX OR A "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW 40'S. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW; THEREFORE, THE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDFLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME CALM SPELLS EXPECTED MOSTLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER OPPRESSIVELY HOT DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH A TEMPERATURE HIGH OF 34 DEGREES CELCIUS AND A FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURE IN THE 40'S. THERE ARE STILL SOME PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ON THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND AS A RESULT, PATCHES OF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POPPING ALL DAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS; THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT OF PLACING RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION, THEREFORE, WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE TOMORROW, THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL NOT EXCEED 40 PERCENT OR MODERATE. PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OVERNIGHT.

 

FORECASTER

LORNE SALMON