AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

15:42 UTC AUGUST 18 2019

 

DISCUSSION:   THE ATMOSPHERE OVER LEEWARDS REMAINS ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE THIS MORNING; HOWEVER, MOST OF THE RAIN SEEN EARLIER ON RADAR IMAGERY HAS DECREASED DUE MAINLY TO A WEAK RIDGE AT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE FORMATION OF CLOUDS; HOWEVER IT IS BELIEVED THAT THIS INSTABILITY REGISTERED ON THE GDI INDEX IS MORE OF AN INDICATION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL LIKELY YIELD MORE MEDIUM LEVEL TYPE CLOUDS. MUCH WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE SUPPORT FROM THE LOWER LEVELS. BASED ON THE LACK OF LOWER LEVEL SUPPORT, IT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THAT THE EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING, SOME PATCHY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AS THE WAVE MOVE OVER THE BVI, OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THESE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY.

 

FORECASTER

LENARD JOSIAH