| AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES 15:29 UTC DECEMBER 10 2019
DISCUSSION: A
STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED BY A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA MAINTAINED WINDY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED SEA HEIGHTS.
CLOUDY PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS OCCURS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SHOWN THAT THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE TOMORROW, AS A 500MB LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH IS
SHOWN TO INCREASE INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY; THUS POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTAL RANGES BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MM. RADAR
IMAGERY, CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST.
FORECASTER PATRICE EDWARDS
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