AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

02:23 UTC FEBRUARY 26 2017

 

DISCUSSION  ..DRY AIR AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO RESTRICT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. ALSO A STRENGTHENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN IS ALREADY TRANSLATING IN GRADUALLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND, DUE TO A BIT MORE MIXING, THE ISLANDS ARE REPORTING A BIT MORE CLOUDS IN THE SKIES THAN WHAT WERE REPORTED FOR THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT, THE ISLANDS ARE RECORDING HIGHER TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE NIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS HENCE SUGGESTING LESS RADIATION COOLING TAKING PLACE.

.....THE FORECAST MODELS ARE PROJECTING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE ATMOSPHERE STARTING FROM ABOUT MIDDAY TOMORROW AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL COME FROM A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL ENTER THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND HENCE, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE EVENING INTO THE NIGHT WILL INCREASE.. THE MODELS ARE ALSO PROJECTING STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND HENCE, RATHER THAN A GENTLE WINDFLOW, THE WINDFLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE AND THE DIRECTION WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OR EASTERLY. ALSO, WITH THE WINDS INCREASING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AND MORE CLOUDS PRESENT IN THE SKIES, THE RADIATION COOLING OVER THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW WHICH WILL CAUSE THE OVERNIGHT LOW NOT DROPPING BELOW 20 DEGREES CELCIUS. THE SHOWERS AROUND TOMORROW AND THE WINDS INCREASING SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE DAYTIME ENVIRONMENT A BIT COOL AND HENCE THE TEMPERATURE MAX TOMORROW SHOULD NOT EXCEED 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.

 

FORECASTER

LORNE SALMON