16:17 UTC SEPTEMBER 22 2021

DISCUSSION:   A GENERALLY SETTLED ATMOSPHERE DOMINATED THE AREA THIS MORNING NOTWITHSTANDING THE PRESENCE OF A FEW PATCHES SEEN VIA RADAR. THESES PATCHES WERE GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA AND STAYED OFF COURSE FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER, AS WE APPROACHED MIDDAY, DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS COULD BE SEEN DEVELOPING JUST ON THE NORTHERN TIP OF BARBUDA. THIS COULD LIKLEY BE THE CASE FOR A FEW OTHER ISLANDS WHERE CBS COULD COME ABOUT AS A RESULT OF THE INSTABILITY ATTRIBUTED TO A LIGHT SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE MOISTURE LEVELS SEEN VIA THE MIMIC SHOW A DECREASING TREND THEREFORE IF SHOWERS DO DEVELOP THEY ARE MOST LIKLEY TO BE ISOLATED DUE TO A MESOSCALE EVENT AND MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS THERE IS A CUL OVER THE AREA SO IF ANY CLOUD BUILDUPS DO DEVELOP THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE.

NO CHANGE IS REQUIRED TO THE CURRENT ISSUED FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER

LETITIA HUMPHREYS