AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

03:12 UTC SEPTEMBER 25 2018

 

DISCUSSION  ..A WEAK TROUGH MOVED OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS TROUGH IMPARTED WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE ISLANDS; HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL SUPPORT WAS LIMITED AND AS A RESULT, DID NOT YIELD SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS. CURRENTLY, RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS WHICH IS DECREASING IN TIME

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS: THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARDS AND OVER THE BVI EARLY TOMORROW AND WILL PROVIDE BRIEF SHOWERS OVER THOSE ISLANDS. THE GDI INDEX DOES SHOW MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY OVER THE BVI WHICH SUPPORT DEEPER CONVECTION OVER THESE ISLANDS SHOULD LOW LEVEL SUPPORT BE PRESENT. MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE LEEWARDS ALSO AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME BRIEF SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, A WEAK RIDGE WILL IMPART GREATER STABILITY OVER THE LEEWARDS

 

FORECASTER

LENARD JOSIAH