AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

15:29 UTC DECEMBER 10 2019

 

DISCUSSION: A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED BY A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA MAINTAINED WINDY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED SEA HEIGHTS. CLOUDY PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS OCCURS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SHOWN THAT THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TOMORROW, AS A 500MB LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH IS SHOWN TO INCREASE INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY; THUS POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTAL RANGES BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MM. RADAR IMAGERY, CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST.

 

FORECASTER

PATRICE EDWARDS