AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

00:47 UTC JUNE 26 2017

 

DISCUSSION  ..AFTER THE NORTHERN TIP OF A TROPICAL WAVE BRINGING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA IS BECOMING LESS UNSTABLE. IN FACT, SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL CHART ANALYSES ALONG WITH SATELLITE DATA ARE NOW HIGHLIGHTING ANTICYCLONE OCCUPYING ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND ACCOMPANYING IT IS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. HENCE, THE ISLANDS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING A DECLINE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. BOTH THE PUERTO RICO AND THE GUADELOUPE RADARS HAVE BEEN SHOWING VIRTUALLY NO SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS.

......THE LATEST MODELS ARE VERY MUCH IN AGREEMENT THAT ANTICYCLONE ALONG WITH AN AIRMASS THAT IS PROGRESSIVELY BECOMNG LESS MOIST AND MORE STABLE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TOMORROW. THEREFORE THE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE. ALTHOUGH ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE MODELS ARE PROJECTING A SLACKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AS A DROP IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED FROM A MODERATE TO FRESH WINDFLOW TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDFLOW.

 

FORECASTER

LORNE SALMON