AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

16:08 UTC SEPTEMBER 23 2017

 

DISCUSSION: THIS MORNING, WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION RESULTING FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH FEEDER BANDS FROM HURRICANE MARIA WAS OBSERVED ACORSS THE AREA, MANILY ACROSS BARBUDA AND OVER WATERS NORTH AND EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS A MOIST PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, HOWEVER THE ABUNDANCE OF THIS MOISTURE IS MORE EVIDENT IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. NOTWITHSTANDING THE PRESENCE OF THE FEEDER BAND ACROSS THE AREA, MOST OF THE SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS BARBUDA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS EAST AND NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE GENERAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORCAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0-10 MM (0-0.4 INCH). RADAR IMAGERY, CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECASTS. 

 

FORECASTER

LETITIA HUMPHREYS