AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

16:21 UTC NOVEMBER 14 2018

 

DISCUSSION: GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING AS QUITE A BIT OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSED, THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS SHOWER ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DECREASED. FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS A DEEP TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS BUT THE WIND FLOW FROM THE 00Z ANAYLSIS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED TROUGH ALSO AT THE 700MB LEVEL PASSING THROUGH THE LEEWARDLEVELS FROM 700MB UPWARDS AND HAS BEEN PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUM ALSO SHOWS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HOWEVER, MOST OF THIS MOISTURE SEEMS TO MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY. ALSO OF NOTABLE MENTION IS SOME SAHARAN DUST FOLLOWING THIS WAVE WHICH USUALLY TENDSCONTRIBUTE TO THE SUPRESSION OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY.

THE OUTLOOK GOING FORWARD IS FOR A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THIS TROUGH SYSTEM HENCE A DECREASE THE LEVEL OF DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR ONE OF TWO SHOWERS TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON, THEY ARE LIKLEY TO BE SHORT LIVED. GOING INTO EVENING AN EVEN FURTHER DECREASE IS EXPECTED AND THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW IS FOR GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

THESE CONDITIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST HENCE AN UPDATE IS NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. 

 

FORECASTER

LETITIA HUMPHREYS