AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

02:03 UTC AUGUST 24 2017

 

DISCUSSION  ..SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM THE EAST AND, BASED ON RECENT RADAR SHOTS FROM GUADELOUPE, SOME OF THE CLOUDS ARE DUMPING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SEEM TO BECOMING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

.....THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND GRADUALLY BEING REPLACED BY ANTICYCLONE. THE MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT AS THE ANTICYCLONE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA, THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AND HENCE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

 

FORECASTER

LORNE SALMON