AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

16:59 UTC JULY 25 2017

 

DISCUSSION: THIS MORNING, A LOW LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM CAUSED SOME CLOUDY INTERVALS WITH SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE AS HIGH AS 10 MM (O.40 IN); HOWEVER, THIS WAS SEEN OVER THE SEA. THE MIMIC PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWED RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS WITH TOTALS IN THE RANGE OF 50 TO 60 MM. MODELS SURVEYED SHOWED A FURTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY. HENCE, MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS 3 TO 15 MM (0.12 TO 0.60 IN). THE LAST ISSUED FORECASTS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, ANALYSES AND MODEL OUTPUTS. HOWEVER, LOWER WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY.

FORECASTER

DALE DESTIN/LETITIA HUMPHREYS