AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

01:45 UTC NOVEMBER 18 2017

 

DISCUSSION: DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT, LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERIES HAVE SHOWN WERE VOID OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD AND SHOWERS. HOWEVER, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GENERATE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ANGUILLA. LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS MAINTAINS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY STABLE; THUS, INHIBITING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS. THEREFORE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY FAIR WITH, AT MOST, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MEANWHILE, THE FRONTAL TROUGH SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND A LESSER EXTENT ANGUILLA. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS. POSSIBLE RAINFALLS TOTAL IS MINIMAL.

RADAR IMAGERY, CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST.

 

FORECASTER

PATRICE EDWARDS